Tech giants start by disassembling systems

Chapter 175 Noise

2020 11 Month 26 Day.

There is about a week left before the 300mm trial etching.

But outside of Hongyuan Feiniao's laboratory, an even larger-scale media offensive is underway.

The first to launch the attack was an in-depth analysis article from the WeChat public account "Semiconductor Industry Observer." The title was:

"Hongyuan Flying Bird Open Equivalent Thermoelastic Approximation Method: A Vision or a Helpless Situation?"

The article's core argument is singular: Hongyuan Feiniao's decision to license its 250mm technology is not due to "great vision," but rather out of necessity.

"Let's turn our attention away from the 'Touching China' narrative and calmly analyze the situation of Hongyuan Flying Bird," the article stated.

"Hongyuan Flying Bird currently faces three core issues:"

First, there is a shortage of packaging capacity. After MicroPort Sensors was acquired by Bosch, Hongyuan Feiniao's packaging supply chain faces significant uncertainty. Investing in a small factory with a monthly production capacity of 50 units is far from sufficient to solve this problem.

Second, the 300mm scale has not yet been verified. The success of the equivalent thermoelastic approximation method on the 250mm scale does not guarantee its success on the 300mm scale. The third-order nonlinear coupling effect faced by large-size MEMS etching is a completely new physical problem, and there is currently no publicly available information indicating that Hongyuan Feiniao has solved it.

Third, the business model is immature. The 'two-tier strategy' sounds appealing, but in reality, it cedes the most lucrative consumer market to others. The total size of the flight control-grade MEMS market is limited—no more than $50 billion globally—and Hongyuan Feiniao currently holds less than 2% of this market share.

In this context, opening up the 250mm technology license is less about "ambition" and more about exchanging technology for an ecosystem—using a technology that is almost being caught up with to gain support and partners within the industry.

This was a clever strategy. But it also exposed Hongyuan Feiniao's trump card—its lead might only be half a generation.

This article garnered over 10 views on WeChat official accounts.

Immediately afterwards, several "industry analyst" accounts on Weibo began to forward and quote the views expressed in this article, along with various pessimistic comments about Hongyuan Feibiao.

"The problem with Hongyuan Flying Bird isn't that its technology isn't strong enough. It's that it's too weak," wrote a blogger called "Chip Observer." "A company with annual revenue of less than 15 billion yuan wants to compete with a multinational giant with annual revenue exceeding 5000 billion yuan? Opening up technology isn't about vision, it's about survival."

"I suggest everyone take a calm approach to Hongyuan Flying Bird," wrote another blogger called "Tech Review." "12.03 degrees Celsius is indeed impressive. But one statistic cannot support a company's future. What if they can't produce 300mm? What if the packaging supply chain breaks down? Hongyuan Flying Bird is still far from safe."

These voices spread rapidly within two days.

Unlike the overwhelmingly positive reception on the day of the press conference, public opinion is now showing a clear divide.

The majority of people still support Hongyuan Feiniao, but the voices of doubt are getting louder, more logical, and harder to refute simply.

Because these criticisms are not emotional abuse. They are supported by data, based on industry analysis frameworks, and sound very professional.

The most fatal flaw is that some of these viewpoints are correct.

There are indeed gaps in the packaging. The 300mm diameter has not yet been verified. The business model is indeed immature.

These are all facts.

……

In the WeChat group, Flyer Lao Chen forwarded the article "Semiconductor Industry Observation" and then asked:

"What do you all think? This article is very professionally written."

After a few minutes of silence, the calm analyst replied:

"It's indeed professionally written. The facts are mostly correct. However, the conclusion is flawed."

Pilot Lao Chen: "Where is the deviation?"

Calm Analyst:

He said that Hongyuan Flying Bird's leading advantage 'may only be half a generation'. The premise of this judgment is that 300mm cannot be made.

What if we manage to make a 300mm version?

The lead of the Hongyuan Feibiao is not half a generation, but a whole generation. And it is a whole generation that Bosch cannot catch up with in the short term.

So everything depends on 300mm.

These articles, these questions, these 'calm analyses'—they all discuss one premise: what if the wild goose is only 250mm long?

But if Su Chen completes the 300mm verification in December—all these articles will become worthless.

So don't let the noise distract you. What really matters isn't what's being said online, but what's being done in the lab.

Shenzhen Xiao Wang: "So Su Chen is now—"

The calm analyst said, "I suspect he's preparing for a 300mm test etching. If I'm not mistaken, it should be in early December."

Old Chen, the Flyer: "How did you know?"

The calm analyst said, "Because at the press conference, Lin Wei said that 300mm is 'not yet within the scope of opening up.' If 300mm is still in the purely theoretical stage, she wouldn't use the word 'not yet open up.' She would say 'under research.'"

"Not open for the time being" means that there have been some preliminary results, but it is not yet ready to be made public.

The most likely scenario is that the theoretical framework has been completed and is now ready for experimental verification.

Old Chen, the Flyer: "Impressive...you could be a detective."

The calm analyst said, "It's not that I'm particularly good. It's just that Lin Wei's wording was too precise. Every word was carefully considered."

But there's one thing I still can't figure out.

Shenzhen Xiao Wang: "What?"

The calm analyst said, "These critical articles... don't you think they're appearing too frequently?"

The press conference was on the 23rd. On the 24th, public opinion was overwhelmingly positive. On the 25th, Hongyuan Feiniao announced its two-tier strategy. Then, on the 26th—within a single day—four or five different accounts on different platforms—'Semiconductor Industry Observer,' 'Chip Observer,' 'Tech Review,' and a Zhihu user named 'Former Bosch Employee'—simultaneously published articles with the same tone of skepticism?

This doesn't seem spontaneous.

It's like someone is trying to stop the weaving.

Flyer Lao Chen: "You mean... someone's pulling strings behind the scenes?"

The calm analyst said, "I'm not sure. But if it is—that means Hongyuan Feibiao's enemy is not just Bosch."

Think about it. Hongyuan Feiniao has released a 250mm license for the equivalent thermoelastic approximation method. Who would least want to see this?

Shenzhen Xiao Wang: "Bosch?"

A calm analyst said, "Bosch is one. But there's another group—other domestic MEMS manufacturers."

Do you think everyone welcomes open technology? For companies that have been working in the MEMS field for many years and have built up technological barriers based on their own experience—such as Hongyuan Feiniao directly opening up its 250mm methodology—this is not a blessing, but a threat.

Previously, they were competitors. The technological gap was not significant, and each had its own advantages.

Now, Hongyuan Feiniao has directly opened up its most advanced methodology—meaning that all member companies of the Feiniao Alliance will gain the same or even better technological capabilities as them.

Their technological advantages, painstakingly accumulated over ten years, could be wiped out within a year.

Therefore, they have a motivation to question Hongyuan Feiniao, suppress Hongyuan Feiniao, and hope that Hongyuan Feiniao will fail.

The success of Hongyuan Flying Bird signifies the collapse of the old order.

Not everyone welcomes the new order.

The group chat was quiet for a long time.

Old Chen, the Flyer: "What about the Hongyuan Flying Bird?"

The calm analyst said, "What should we do? Make it 300mm."

All the noise—questions, suppression, conspiracies—will fall silent in the face of a definitive experimental result.

The 12.03 degree Celsius silenced everyone for once.

The successful verification of 300mm will shut everyone up a second time.

That's why I say—don't look at what's being said online. Look at what's being done in the lab.

Noise is always noise. A signal is always a signal.

……

That same evening, Su Chen received a video call from Zhou Zhiyuan in the lab.

The same mathematical derivation document was open on both of their screens simultaneously—a document shared by Zhou Zhiyuan in his dormitory at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing.

"I've completed the final verification of angular symmetry dimensionality reduction," Zhou Zhiyuan said. "All boundary cases converge. The computational accuracy can be stabilized at the order of 10 to the power of -5. Time—"

"Six hours," Su Chen said.

"5 hours and 47 minutes," Zhou Zhiyuan corrected. "I further optimized the step size selection algorithm for numerical integration. The Gauss-Legendre quadrature is more efficient on third-order terms than I previously estimated."

"5 hours and 47 minutes." Su Chen nodded. "That's enough."

"Where are the silicon wafers?"

"已经订了。300mm P型＜100＞晶向，625微米厚。3片。12月2号到货。"

"Only order 3 pieces?"

"That's enough. If the theory is correct, one trial etching is sufficient. The remaining two are for backup."

Zhou Zhiyuan adjusted his glasses. He had never seen anyone prepare only three silicon wafers before conducting an experiment that no one had ever done before.

Generally speaking, the trial production of a completely new process requires at least a dozen or even dozens of silicon wafers to repeatedly adjust the parameters.

Su Chen only prepared three pieces.

Because he believed in his own theory.

"Su Chen." Zhou Zhiyuan paused for a moment, "What if the first etching attempt fails?"

"Analyze the cause. Correct the model. Try again."

"Is there enough time?"

"That's not enough," Su Chen said calmly. "So we can't afford to fail."

Zhou Zhiyuan looked at Su Chen's face on the screen.

Of all the researchers he knew, only Su Chen would say the words "failure is not an option" in such a tone—not out of tension or pressure, but as if it were a statement of a physical law.

It's as if failure isn't an option.

"There's something I want to tell you." Zhou Zhiyuan hesitated for a moment.

"explain."

"I've thought about it—regarding your offer to be my technical advisor."

Su Chen looked at him.

"I agree."

Su Chen's expression didn't change much, only the corner of his mouth twitched slightly.

"But I have one condition," Zhou Zhiyuan said.

"What are the conditions?"

"After the 300mm verification is successful, I want to write that paper with you."

Su Chen thought for a moment: "Co-first author?"

"No. You are the first author. I am the corresponding author." Zhou Zhiyuan's voice was very serious. "This is your theory. From the equivalent thermoelastic approximation method to the third-order correction, you built the entire framework. I just helped you solve a computational efficiency problem."

But being the corresponding author means I endorse the academic quality of this paper. I want to use my reputation in academia to prove—what you've done isn't amateurish. It's not just engineering experience. It's real physics.

Su Chen remained silent for a few seconds.

He knew the weight of Zhou Zhiyuan's words. In academia, the corresponding author is responsible for the scientific rigor and soundness of the entire paper. For an associate researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences to be willing to be the corresponding author for a paper by someone without a doctoral degree—that requires considerable courage and confidence.

Because if there are problems with the paper, the corresponding author's academic reputation will be the most damaged.

"Okay," Su Chen said.

"Okay." Zhou Zhiyuan nodded. "Then let's continue discussing the details of the etching scheme. I have some ideas about controlling the flow rate of the etching gas—"

The two continued their discussion for over two hours.

After hanging up the video call, Su Chen sat alone in the laboratory.

Outside the window is the night view of Nanshan District, Shenzhen. The city lights are dazzling, and traffic flows endlessly.

He opened his phone and glanced at Weibo.

The first item pushed to the homepage was the article "Hongyuan Flying Bird Open Equivalent Thermoelastic Approximation Method: Pattern or Helplessness?".

Su Chen glanced at the title and then closed Weibo.

He opened the chat window with Lin Wei.

"The silicon wafers will arrive on December 2nd. The computational program is ready. Trial etching is scheduled for December 3rd."

Lin Wei replied: "Okay. What kind of support do you need?"

"No need. Just keep quiet."

Lin Wei responded with an "OK" gesture.

Then she sent another message: "There's some noise outside. Don't worry about it."

Su Chen replied with three words: "What noise?"

Lin Wei smiled as she looked at the three words.

She did not reply.

Because that's the best answer—Su Chen had no idea what was going on outside. He didn't even know that someone was questioning Hongyuan Feiniao.

There is only one thing in his world—the 300mm test etching on December 3rd.

The noise doesn't reach him.

Because he's in the signal.

……

11 month 27 day.

Hongyuan Feiniao's official website released a brief announcement:

The inaugural Flying Bird Alliance Technology Sharing Conference will be held on December 5, 2020, at the Nanshan Science and Technology Park in Shenzhen. At the conference, Hongyuan Flying Bird will provide a detailed introduction to the engineering application methodology of the equivalent thermoelastic approximation method for alliance member companies and offer on-site technical training. Alliance member companies are welcome to register and participate.

The announcement received little response.

Following the impact of the critical articles published in the previous two days, the enthusiasm of the media and the public for Hongyuan Feiniao has clearly cooled. The number of registered companies for the technology sharing session—as of the evening of the 27th—was only 23, far below Lin Wei's expectation of 40.

Zhou Lin approached Lin Wei with the registration data, her expression somewhat worried: "President Lin, the number of companies that have registered is almost half of what we expected."

Lin Wei glanced at the data and nodded: "As expected."

"Should we postpone it? Or increase the publicity efforts?"

"No delays. No increased promotion," Lin Wei said. "Those who come are companies that genuinely need this technology. Those who don't—they'll come to us after the 300mm news comes out."

"News about 300mm?"

"December 3rd," Lin Wei said, "if everything goes smoothly."

She glanced out the window. It was late November in Shenzhen, and the weather was starting to cool, but the sun was still shining brightly.

12 month 3 number.

300mm test etching.

If successful—all the noise will cease. All doubts will turn into praise. All hesitant businesses will flock to us.

If it fails—

Lin Wei didn't think about this "what if".

Because Su Chen had said—"We cannot fail."

Su Chen never breaks his word.